CABIN ECONOMICS
aircraft into the fleets at a rate of around 1,200 aircraft
per annum capable of flying circa 3,000NM. The order
backlog in August 2019 stands at 9,672 aircraft, and
with aircraft manufactured at a rate of circa 1,200 per
annum, the backlog would take eight years to supply.
It is our opinion that as solutions to the present MAX
problems emerge, Airbus and Boeing aircraft of circa
3,000NM will continue to retire at a historical average
of 182 aircraft per annum. This means 1,456 aircraft will
depart from fleet (eight years x 182 = 1,456). Therefore
the number of single-aisle aircraft likely to be in the fleet
by 2027 is 24,415, which in turn means the likely number
of aircraft flying long-haul sectors will amount to 3,662.
In Counterpoint’s opinion most long-haul sector singleaisle
aircraft will be equipped with business class seating –
either recliners or lie-flats. The bias will be not be as high
as the current ratio of recliners compared to lie-flats on
wide-bodies, where in excess of 90% of the aircraft today
attract lie-flat seat installations. Counterpoint posits that
the ratio for SALF seat installations will be circa 60% of
the single-aisle aircraft flying by 2027. The remaining fleet
will be a combination of business class recliners and alleconomy
class with variable pitch scenarios.
Assuming an average of 16 SALF seats installed in a
single-aisle aircraft, this could result in the number of SALF
seats required to satisfy the market demand by 2027 being
as high as 35,155. Or expressed as a running rate of
approximately 4,400 passengers per annum, approximately
a quarter of the wide-body annual running rate for lie-flat
seats. This represents a true business opportunity for
airlines and manufacturers.
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016 ANNUAL SHOWCASE 2020
In summary the challenge for airlines and aircraft
OEMs is to provide SALFs to give an experience akin
to widebody aircraft; catering offers akin to widebody
services; and real PRM lavatory modules of a size that can
be used by the majority of PRMs, not the minority. Also, in
order for single-aisle aircraft to remain a popular economy
passenger option compared to widebody aircraft, there will
be a need for less densification of the economy cabin as the
public demands inflight well-being, and accessibility for all.
INDUSTRY THREATS TO CONSIDER
Since the 1950s, apart from several years of flatlining,
the aviation industry has been in constant growth due
to the human desire to explore and travel. The younger
generations are thinking differently about class and status,
the non-ownership of things, and more about the
environment and technology. However, new technologies
emerging that are not necessarily related to air travel may
change the way that average 1 to 1.5-hour flight sectors
are fulfilled for the new generation of travellers.
For example, disciples of autonomous vehicles compare
the home to destination times of LA to SFO as an
alternative to flying; high-speed trains travelling from city
centre to city centre could reduce the use of airports; and
the development of Hyperloop could unsettle the singleaisle
city-to-city market, as well as high-speed trains.
Whilst routes crossing oceans and considerable areas
of water will continue to require aircraft, land masses –
continents such as North America, South America, Russia,
China, India, Australia, Africa and Continental Europe –
could see the start of rapid Hyperloop transportation
eating into the domestic aircraft transportation market.
TABLE 6: FLEET DATA
August 2019 eet data sample
Airline Average Flight Leg (HR:Min)
Ryanair 01:36
Southwest 01:52
AirAsia 01:48
Source: Flight Radar 24
TABLE 7: TRANSATLANTIC
August 2019 eet data sample:
transatlantic single aisle
Airline Route Est. flight
leg (hrs:mins)
American Airlines PHL - EDI 05:55
SNN - PHL 06:58
DFW - KEF 07:05
Delta Air Lines ATL - PDL 05:50
PDL - JFK 05:40
MSP - KEF 05:35
United Airlines EWR - GLA 06:10
IAD - DUB 06:15
OPO - EWR 07:30
Source: Flight Radar 24
“Most long-haul sector
single-aisle aircraft
will be equipped with
business class seating”
Turn to p26 to
read more predictions
for the future travel
experience, including
the influence of
Hyperloop
ABOVE: SOME DESIGNERS HAVE
CREATED TWIN-AISLE CONCEPTS
FOR NARROW-BODY AIRCRAFT.
THE NEWFACE CONCEPT FOR 2030
HAS BEEN CONCEIVED BY PARTNERS
INCLUDING ALMADESIGN P64
AND EMBRAER P136
/aircraftinteriorsinternational.com