POST COVID-19
Off the radar
Readers are all well aware of the trials and tribulations within the sector at
present – but what lies ahead, when the dust finally settles? Alwyn Brice
harvests some thoughts from the cargo community.
With the tidal wave that
has engulfed the
world, certain
industry players have become
adept at treading water whilst
some have disappeared under
the waves. For yet others, the
onset of the coronavirus has
obliged them to focus more,
and critically examine their
operating model. This latter
section of the freight industry
is quite probably also the
contingent that is looking over
the horizon to prepare for
what lies in store.
An altered operating
landscape would appear to be
inevitable in this respect – but
will the players within the
industry be able to adapt? Or
will they seek to return to a
more familiar environment,
even if it is a largely alien one?
The biggest shock
“The aviation business has just suffered the biggest shock in its
modern history,” reckons Wilson Kwong, Chief Executive, Hactl.
“No war or natural disaster has ever before grounded up to
95% of the world passenger airliner fleet – and for months. This
meant that, at one time, the air cargo industry had lost some
45% of its total flown capacity, placing a huge burden on the
much smaller freighter fleet to keep supply lines open, and to
cope with the huge demand to move PPE and other medical
supplies globally.
“The legacy of this pandemic is likely to be a very protracted
return to the levels of passenger flights which existed pre-
COVID-19. Through necessity, we have all learned to conduct
business remotely via teleconferencing, and so some of the
former business travel market may never return. That, in turn,
will make some routes unviable, or at least will drive a reduction
in frequencies and an increase in economy fares. Leisure
travellers may also take some time to regain confidence. At the
same time, a number of government bail-outs for airlines have
come with green conditions, requiring a reduction in flights. The
combined result of these factors will be a loss of bellyhold
capacity, at least in the short to medium term; but possibly
forever.
“PPE and medical supplies traffic is gradually subsiding, while
global consumer demand is
likely to remain subdued
meanwhile, as much of the
world has now entered
recession through job losses
and falls in output. In other
words, in the short to medium
term, the industry can
probably tolerate a reduction
in belly capacity.”
The importance of the longer
term picture
He continues: “But – given the
importance of freighter
operations to Hactl, what
interests us is the longer-term
picture. The world economy
will eventually recover, as it
always does. That will increase
the call on cargo capacity,
much of which will have
disappeared. Many airlines
today are utilising their
30 August 2020 www.airlogisticsinternational.com
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