LANDSCAPE
FUTURE
Projected average real GDP
growth p.a., 2016-2050
“failure to engage with these
markets means missing out
on the bulk of the economic
growth we expect to see in the
world economy between now
and 2050.” VNM
IND
BGD
PAK
PHL
NGA
EGY
ZAF
IDN
MYS
COL
MEX
CHN
TUR
SAU
ARG
IRN
THA
BRA
AUS
POL
GBR
RUS
CAN
KOR
USA
NLD
FRA
ESP
DEU
ITA
JPN
Average real GDP growth p.a. (2016-2050)
Average pop growth p.a. % Average real growth per capita p.a. % Average GDP growth p.a. (in domestic currency)
Average annual growth in DGP in PPPs
Projected growth profiles for
larger economies
Brazil Russia India China US UK EU27 World
2016 - 2020 2021 - 2030 2031 - 2040 2041 - 2050
now and 2050, far outstripping population growth.”
Per capita incomes in what we today call the advanced
countries will, in fact, probably remain above those in the
emerging world. But because the emerging countries mostly have
larger, and faster growing, populations, the collective size of
their economies will grow much faster. Europeans and Americans
may be generally wealthier as individuals but, ultimately, largepopulation
countries, and those with faster growing populations,
will win out over relatively unpopulated places like Europe or
North America.
The PwC report projects that the total world economy will
double in size by 2042, growing at an annual average rate of around
2.6% between 2016 and 2050. But this will be driven largely by
emerging markets and developing countries. The term ‘E7’ has been
fairly recently coined, meaning the top seven emerging countries,
By then, PwC predicts, the G7
group of countries will have
shrunk to less than a quarter
of global GDP, pushed into a
corner by the growing might
of the E7 grouping.
To put the changes into
context, in the new world
order of 2050, Mexico and
Indonesia are likely to have
larger economies than the UK
and France, while Pakistan and
Egypt could overtake Italy and
Canada, says PwC.
Perhaps most pertinently
for global businesses, the new
emerging economies will
create many opportunities for
business, says PwC. They will
“progress into new industries,
engage with world markets
as their populations, which
will also be more youthful
on average than in advanced
nations, get richer.”
They will become more
attractive places in which to
do business and live, attracting
investment and talent.
But to take advantage,
“companies will need dynamic
and flexible operating strategies
to succeed in them. Businesses
should be prepared to adjust
their brand and market
positions to suit differing and
often more nuanced local
preferences. An in-depth
understanding of the local
market and consumers will be
crucial, which will often involve
working with local partners.”
They will also need patience
to ride out the inevitable short
term economic and political
storms.
But make no mistake:
namely Brazil, China, India,
Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and
Turkey, all of which are expected
to grow at an annual average
rate of almost 3.5% over the
next 34 years, compared to
just 1.6% for the G7 group of
advanced (Canada, France,
Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK
and the US).
Declining relevance?
Indeed, by 2050, it is debatable
how relevant the existing G7
will be to the world economy.
32 February 2020 www.airlogisticsinternational.com
/www.airlogisticsinternational.com