RISK MANaGEMENT
US$318 billion
Estimated value of the
urban air mobility market
over the next 20 years
4
AEROSPACETESTINGINTERNATIONAL.COM // DECEMBER 2019 67
1
A MASSIVE MARKET
FOR AIR TAXIS?
Vertical Aerospace’s Seraph
eVTOL is an interim step
between the drones it is based
on and the final aircraft. Data
and insights from the test
program will influence the
design of the final aircraft.
The prototype is currently
undergoing systems testing on
the ground during winter.
Vertical Aerospace is one of
dozens of companies around
the world pushing to be first
with a commercial product for
the urban air mobility (UAM)
market. Analysts are predicting
massive growth in the UAM
market over the coming
decade. Most recently in June,
Nexa Advisors and the Vertical
Flight Society published a
report which predicts the UAM
market will be worth US$318
billion over the next 20 years.
Paul Harper, chief
certification engineer for
Vertical Aerospace, believes
his company’s approach
to testing will ensure a
safe final aircraft. He says,
“eVTOL development is like
aviation was in the 1940s
and 1950s. There are a lot of
smart companies all vying for
success. There are so many
varied designs – it’s a really
interesting time.
“But a lot of it will come
down to testing. You can often
tell just by looking at a them
which part of a proposed
design is risky and likely
to fail.”
“We had to start looking at possible
failure modes in dynamic situations”
health and safety obligations can be met. “We have to
consider how our operations might impact others and
ensure everybody’s safety,” says Harper.
Another major step is to set up an occurrence
reporting scheme. This is a way of recording and
documenting things that go wrong during testing that
weren’t anticipated in the test plan. “It could be a bracket
that breaks on the aircraft or something larger – a report
has to be filled out. Its identical to what happens in the
testing program at a large company developing a
conventional aircraft,” says Harper.
Safety risks are prioritized before any other project
management risks associated with costs and time are
considered. “After the test plan is produced, we know
where the potential pitfalls are. We manage the test
program to collect as much data as possible, so we can
extract as much value as possible from the testing. That
might mean adapting the test plan as we learn more
about the aircraft.
“You tiptoe out to the edges of performance and get
progressively more challenging to expand the flight
envelope in a safe way.”
But once the testing program
starts, the safety and
certification manager’s role
should be diminished as long as
everything has been set up
properly. “Once everything is in
2
3
1 // Vertical Aerospace’s
latest prototype, Seraph,
can fly at speeds of up to
80km/h and carry 250kg,
the equivalent of three
passengers
2 // Aircraft’s increased
use of software means
testing code for errors
3 // Test plans are
established before a
flight test program, but
can be modified as long
as safety is prioritized
4// Complex systems
testing requires new
tools such as hardware in
the loop testing to meet
program schedules
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