DEVELOPING NATIONS
Africa, apart from South Africa, most of those
countries don’t buy new but import. There is
a distinct fl ow from Japan into East Africa, and
a separate fl ow into East Africa, then it
spreads,” says clean transport academic and
electric vehicle specialist, Paul Niewenhuis.
“You would have to wait at least fi ve years
before the fi rst EVs come out of the system –
they will survive the fi ve-year shaken
roadworthiness test, but at seven years
the owner may decide it’s obsolete, then it’s
released to export. But they are more likely to
go to New Zealand, which imports 130-140,000
cars per year.”
In turn, there’s a requirement for emerging
markets to adopt tougher environmental
standards. Not only could this nurture
domestic manufacturing, but it would avoid
these countries becoming a dumping ground
for older and more polluting vehicles as
developed markets move towards progressive
electrifi cation. Particularly as these now
include hard-to-maintain emissions
control systems.
“Even sophisticated markets like New
Zealand don’t have their own standards, they
adopt from around the world,” Niewenhuis
continues. “It’s easier to adapt what comes in,
and that’s how China started off . It was only
2005 when it inserted its own standards, once
its industry was big enough to impose them.”
4
LESSONS FROM CHINA
Although China has been the world’s
largest car market for a decade, with
23.7m sales in 2018 (CAAN data), it’s
also relatively new, and as such, is a
case study for the value of a strategic
approach to developing future-proof
technology locally.
Recognizing that rising car sales
would create a dependence on oil, and
a domestic manufacturing expertise in
motor, battery and control electronics,
the government introduced tariffs on
used imports, stringent emissions
regulations and financial support for
the industry. It’s nurtured the world’s
largest market for plug-ins (1.27m
units, 5.4% market share in 2018), and
given carmakers a head start building
technology other markets are finding
increasingly desirable.
www.electrichybridvehicletechnology.com // July 2019 // 79
taxis in use in East Africa, and it will be built
in Rwanda. Battery swapping mitigates risk for
drivers, and the company is claiming reduced
costs, improved durability and a reduction in
greenhouse gas emissions of between 75% an
98% depending on the mix of renewable energy
used to power them.
Koerner believes it’s a chance for these
countries to establish an industry focused
on more future-proof technology: “There are
fewer components in electric vehicles, and they
are less complex. We support the idea of locally
producing motorcycles fi tted with components
which might not be produced locally in the
near future but could be in the medium term.
It’s a big opportunity for countries that are not
producing vehicles to do so.”
Import duty
The challenge for startups is a thriving import
market. Although small volumes of early EVs
are coming through, sales are weighted
towards combustion engines with less
advanced emission control technology than in
developed markets. “If you look at sub-Saharan
4. EVs specifi c to
emerging markets are
already being built in
those markets
/www.electrichybridvehicletechnology.com