Future Focus |
Q: What do you hope
will be the biggest
positive change in
transportation in
25 years’ time? And
what should we be
doing now to help
bring about this
change?
Traffic Technology International September/October 2019
www.TrafficTechnologyToday.c 010 om
Ithink the key word in this question is ‘hope.’
While there are many things I wish will
happen, the one I hope for most concerns
safety. I would like to see deaths and serious
injuries in all modes become a small fraction
of those seen today. I believe it’s possible. In
aviation deaths in recent decades are a mere
shadow of what we saw less than 30 years ago.
Technology will continue to play a big role in
this reduction. Everything from AVs to positive
train control on railroads should lead to fewer
and less severe incidents. Policy will also need to
play a major role with governments paying more
than lip-service to making safety a priority.
As for what we should be doing to bring this
about – change needs to begin with us. It starts
when we get behind the wheel, no matter what
our role in the transportation industry. As a
profession, we need to not only make it a priority
but to communicate its importance to the public,
elected officials, the media and more. As
humans, we will always make mistakes, but
hopefully that’s where infrastructure and
vehicle technology will save us from ourselves.
Some technological changes which can have a
positive effect on safety also carry with them
serious concerns such as privacy. As new
technologies are developed we need to assure
the public their privacy will be protected if we
want them to embrace these advancements. We
also need to show that this technology isn’t a
cover to collect more revenue. How some
jurisdictions have handled enforcement cameras
is a good example of how poor decisions have
led the public to see these devices as a money
grab not a safety enhancement. Will what I hope
will happen really happen? I think it’s
possible but it will take strong resolve
to make it a reality.
Bernie Wagenblast, editor,
Transportation Communications
Newsletter
The pace of change in the transportation
sector is phenomenal, with a wide
variety of different initiatives being
constantly innovated with a view to a
safer, connected, more active future.
Examples including connected and automated
vehicles (CAVs); ultra-low emission technologies;
shared mobility; smart cities; vision zero – all
aim for change and a positive future. From my
perspective, I would like to see all of these
innovations come to the fore safely and
effectively for the benefit of end-users.
Looking ahead 25 years, I believe we
will be on the final part of the journey to CAVs,
with high levels of autonomy having been
tested, proven and deployed on our roads.
There is no doubt in my mind that automated
vehicles represent the future of transport and
have the potential to deliver tangible, widereaching
benefits in relation to reduced
congestion, faster and cheaper commutes,
fewer collisions and cleaner air.
My other prediction for the future is that our
cities and urban environments will have
completely transformed. The cities of the future
will be environments that promote active travel
and clean air zones. They will be areas that
pedestrians, cyclists and other vulnerable users
can use safely and easily, alongside CAVs. These
significant changes will, of course, mean that the
regulatory landscape will also have changed,
which TRL is already working on with the
European Commission. At the beginning of this
year, TRL developed a three-layer protection
model incorporating 17 measures that include
driver assistance, active safety and passive
safety measures, that all work in harmony to
protect road users. As we move towards a future
of CAVs, these measures will adapt and change
to reflect the new requirements of our future
transport modes.
Shaun Helman, chief scientist, TRL
2004
Our 10th Anniversary – it
was hoped future in-car sat
navs would cost less than
their price then: US$2,000
2005
Amy Zuckerman looked
at how electronic, virtual
barriers were saving lives of
road workers
2006
Phil Tarnoff accurately
predicted voice-activated car
systems and the AI-routeplanning
world of today
2007
Our artist’s impression
of personal drones was a
spookily accurate prediction
of today’s prototypes
2008
Tolling always creates fierce
debate – in 2008 the road
pricing fight was beginning
to heat up
Rearview mirror
Looking
ahead 25 years,
I believe we will be on
the final part of the
journey to CAVs,
with high levels of
autonomy having been
tested, proven and
deployed on our roads
Shaun Helman, chief scientist, TRL
th
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