Future Focus |
2009
Intelligent Speed Adaptation
was basic in 2009, in this
issue we report on how it’ll
soon be legally required (p38)
2010
Sam Shwartz told how he
wanted a NYC congestion
charge in 1971! On p46 we
report on its imminent roll out
Q: What do you hope
will be the biggest
positive change in
transportation in
25 years’ time? And
what should we be
doing now to help
bring about this
change?
Traffic Technology International September/October 2019
www.TrafficTechnologyToday.c 012 om
2011
Intelligent machine vision,
LED streetlights and the
European Electronic Toll
Service were all new
2012
The potential ‘death of VMS’
still seems as far off in
2019 as it did when we first
debated it in 2012…
2013
The public relations task of
selling traffic cameras as
safety, not money-making
tools, was set out
Rear view mirror
We use transport for two main
reasons: business/commerce and
personal/social uses. Will trends
that are reducing some of the
travel demand have a significant
impact over the next 25 years?
White collar and professional work is
becoming increasingly virtual – I haven’t had an
‘office’ in nearly a decade. Retail commerce is
also changing rapidly. One truck can make 50
deliveries eliminating 50 other personal round
trips. What would the implications be if business
transportation is actually reduced? Fewer trips
to the office or the store.
When email was created, it was assumed that
it would be a business tool and yet most of it is
now personal communication. Will a reduction
in business travel lead to or allow for an increase
in personal and social travel? If so, it would be
very good for our society. The Harvard
Longevity Study concluded that the most
important factor in healthy ageing is
relationships. Imagine modifying our
transportation system and improving
lives at the same time. I can dream, can’t I?
Larry Yermack, strategic advisor, Cubic
Transportation Systems. Read more
from Larry in his final column on p61
The one thing I hope we will have
achieved by the mid-2040s is a transport
systems which is smart in the true sense
of all journeys being undertaken in the
optimal way, be it people or goods who
are on the move. Our current conversations
about smart mobility are usually in fact about
mobility involving a lot of IT or mobility which
is new. Are e-scooters actually any smarter than
cars or buses? It’s dubious, but they are new and
capable of being given a catchy new moniker like
micro-mobility.
Planning truly smart mobility means learning
to think about more than one thing at once, and
always thinking with the user at the center.
Automated vehicles will be great for moving
around cities and if we access them as vehicles
for hire, parking disappears from our lives, which
must rank as smart indeed. But that does not
mean that AVs are smart for people in a village in
mid-Wales trying to access work, education, or
health care. Waiting 90 minutes for pick up will
never be viable for an AV service. And if you wait
for your local transport authority to subsidise
your rural AV service so it can be more frequent,
it is likely the only AV you will need will be a
hearse. In the remote village scenario, AVs are
considerably dumber than a 10 year old Ford
Fiesta owned outright by you. Smart has to mean
optimal for the user, at least while operating the
transport network in a democracy. Road user
charging petition, anybody?
We think about our transport future as a
slightly fuzzy amalgamation of electric vehicles,
AVs, connected vehicles, micro-mobility and
usually piously add on the end something about
walking and cycling which we don’t really
expect ourselves or our circle of people to do…
but somebody will and it will surely be good for
them. To be smart in 25 years’ time, we need to
stop joining all these things up and learn that
sometimes electric is smart but sometimes other
fuels are smarter. Sometimes automated is great
but sometimes person-driven will work better. A
young man on an e-scooter needs to be safe, and
so does an old man taking an AV to a lunch club.
His safety can only be properly provided if a
person comes with the vehicle to walk him
safely from apartment door to vehicle seat.
Transport planning should start with a
user-led vision, not an industry and business
vision. The latter is an illusion; no sustainable
business can be built without willing and
supportive customers.
Jennie Martin, secretary general, ITS (UK)
We need to
learn that
sometimes electric is
smart but sometimes
other fuels are
smarter. Sometimes
automated is great
but sometimes
person-driven will
work better.
Jennie Martin,
secretary general,
ITS (UK)
th
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