EDITORS VIEW
// A sustainable future for aviation?
Shortly before this annual showcase of aerospace
testing technology and services went to press, Airbus
and Boeing released their sales forecasts for the next
20 years.
Both predicted excellent growth, particularly single
aisle aircraft, such as the A320 and 737 Max.
Airbus predicts that the density of passengers on
this type of aircraft will continue to increase. When
launched, the A320 seated around 150 passengers.
Today, high density economy layouts can see up to
189 people seated on an A320. The company believes
that low-cost carriers will continue upgrading to
210-seat capacity single aisle aircraft, such as its
A321. Airbus forecasts that it will make close to 10,400
aircraft during the next 20 years in the 210-
seat category, almost as many as the 11,370
in the 175-seat category.
The drive behind this trend is a need
to increase the fuel efficiency of aircraft,
which is also a common influence in
the design and engineering of Airbus
aircraft. The same cost and environmental
pressures can be seen to influence the design of
Boeing’s aircraft and future sales forecasts. The US
aircraft-maker’s 2019 commercial outlook focused on
China as a leading market for growth over the next
20 years. Boeing predicts that China will buy 8,090
aircraft between now and 2038, a 7% rise on their
prediction last year. Almost three quarters of the
8,090 will be single-aisle aircraft.
At the same time, one does not have to look too
hard to find dissenting voices to this positive outlook
for the aviation industry. A report recently published
by the investment bank UBS depicts a slightly less
salubrious future for the sector. According to the UBS
report, for which 6000 people around the world were
surveyed, one in four travelers in the USA and Europe
had reduced the number of flights taken because
of “heightened environmental awareness”. A further
27% said they were considering reducing the number
of flights they travel on because of worries about
climate change. A similar survey conducted by the
bank six months earlier had put that figure at 20%.
Governments are also moving to discourage flying
through increased taxation. France is introducing
a small levy on domestic flights and Germany is
doubling its taxes on flights originating from its
country in January 2020. UBS predicts the affect of
climate concerns and increased taxes could reduce
air traffic growth within Europe over the next 20 years
to 1.5% per year. This is half the growth rate estimated
by Airbus.
The future will reveal who’s gaze into the fiscal
crystal ball is more correct. The determining factor
“Boeing predicts that China
will buy 8,090 aircraft
between now and 2038”
remains that single aisle aircraft, while perhaps not
as innovative as air taxis or drones, are set to remain
the aviation industry’s workhorses for the next 20
years. The industry realizes this and continues to
expend design and engineering effort to increase
fuel efficiency and reduce the environmental impact
of these aircraft. Electric and hybrid options are
being developed for commercial air travel. Despite
the growth of concern about climate change, it
seems unlikely environmentalists will be successful
at significantly restricting air travel growth, least of
all in places such as China. The size of this annual
showcase then, looks set to grow in size as the
number of aircraft in development and innovative
technologies for aerospace testing does.
Ben Sampson, editor
ben.sampson@markallengroup.com
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Inside this issue
// FLIGHT TEST ROUND
UP
The industry’s annual survey of the
leading commercial aircraft being
developed around the world
// GPS HACKING
How researchers are testing the
latest ways of protecting modern
avionics from hackers
// SCRAP SIMULATION
Engineers from the FAA have
rescued and rebuilt a S-76 helicopter
into a realistic flight simulator
Cover 2020.indd 1 11/10/2019 10:45 www.magupdate.co.uk/pati
// The team
EDITOR Ben Sampson
(ben.sampson@markallengroup.com)
ASSISTANT EDITOR Paige Smith
SENIOR ART EDITOR Louise Green
DESIGN CONTRIBUTORS Andy Bass, Anna Davie
PRODUCTION
Sejal Patel
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Chris Jones
PUBLICATION DIRECTOR
Tom Eames (tom.eames@markallengroup.com)
PUBLICATION MANAGER
Jag Kambo (jag.kambo@markallengroup.com)
EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Tom Stone
PUBLISHER Simon Hughes
(simon.hughes@markallengroup.com)
COO Jon Benson
CEO Ben Allen
CHAIRMAN Mark Allen
A MARK ALLEN GROUP COMPANY
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